The most recent postseason victory for the Minnesota Twins occurred 19 years ago, on Oct. 5, 2004. Johan Santana started that evening. The No. 1 song in America was Ciara’s “Goodies.” The No. 1 film at the box office was Will Smith and Robert De Niro’s “Shark Tale.” George W. Bush had not yet completed his first term in office.
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Yeah, it’s been a long time.
But postseason droughts come and go. Anyone from Kansas City or Seattle can tell you about that. What makes the October misery of the Twins so acute is that the club has reached the postseason plenty of times since Santana starred at Yankee Stadium back in 2004. The Twins won the American League Central in 2006, 2009, 2010, 2019 and 2020. They just haven’t won a game in any of the subsequent series, or the 2017 Wild Card Game. Eighteen consecutive postseason defeats. Eighteen!
Read more: MLB Wild Card Series predictions: Our experts make their postseason picks
The good news for the Twins? They will avoid the Yankees, the club who swept them in 2009, 2010, 2019 and, for added insult, won that one-game playoff in 2017. The bad news is they still finished the season with fewer victories than their guests from Toronto. Minnesota earned its postseason spot by winning baseball’s weakest division, but they also under-performed their run differential by several games, suggesting there is untapped potential. To unleash it this October, the team will need sterling performances from its top two starters, Pablo López and Sonny Gray. Carlos Correa has struggled this season but tends to show up in October. The health of rookie infielder Royce Lewis, who juiced the lineup before suffering a hamstring strain in late September, will be crucial.
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The Toronto Blue Jays entered the season as one of the favorites to win the American League East but faded behind Tampa Bay and Baltimore. The health of veteran Brandon Belt will be crucial. Belt offers veteran presence and left-handed balance for a lineup that generates much of its power from right-handed sluggers like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer. Toronto has stumbled through much of this season, but the roster possesses enough talent, including the rare five-man rotation that actually offers manager John Schneider a quintet of reliable options, to make a run. If the group can get on a roll, no one in Toronto will mind how aggravating the journey to reach the tournament was. — Andy McCullough
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Game times
Game 1: Blue Jays at Twins, Tuesday, Oct. 3 at 4:38 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Probable starters: Kevin Gausman (12-9, 3.16) vs. Pablo López (11-8, 3.66)
Game 2: Blue Jays at Twins, Wednesday, Oct. 4 at 4:38 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Probable starters: Chris Bassitt (16-8, 3.60) vs. Sonny Gray (8-8. 2.79)
Game 3: Blue Jays at Twins, Thursday, Oct. 5 at 4:38 p.m. ET, ESPN (if necessary)
Tale of the Tape
| Teams | R/G | SP ERA | RP ERA | DRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
4.58 (15th) | 3.78 (2nd) | 3.67 (8th) | 84 (1st) | |
4.82 (10th) | 3.84 (3rd) | 3.96 (15th) | 31 (9th) |
Twins top performers
| Player | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lineup | 2B | .381 OBP, .367 wOBA | 2.7 | |
Rotation | RHP | 2.79 ERA, 0.39 HR/9 | 5.3 | |
Bullpen | RHP | 2.45 ERA, 65.9 GB% | 1.1 | |
Fielding | CF | DRS 5, UZR 3.1 | 1.7 |
Blue Jays top performers
| Player | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lineup | SS | .307 AVG, 20 HR, .349 wOBA | 3.8 | |
Rotation | RHP | 3.16 ERA, 31.1 K% | 5.3 | |
Bullpen | RHP | 2.90 ERA, 36 saves | 1.2 | |
Fielding | OF | 28 DRS, 11.5 UZR | 2.2 |
Pitching matchups
The Twins traded for Pablo López this offseason, sending Luis Arraez to Miami. (Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins/Getty Images)For the full season, you couldn’t have two pitching staffs that were any closer in terms of talent. Sure, the Twins staff owned advantages in strikeout, walk, and homer rates, but only the slimmest of advantages, and overall, they were both top-five in baseball. But the playoffs are a different beast, where only the best players on each team even get a chance to shine. The Blue Jays benefitted a little more from depth during the regular season than the Twins, and that might matter.
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The Twins should benefit from focusing on top talent, but the Jays still match up well. López and Gray have clearly been their best two starters, to the point where they may need to keep Kenta Maeda fresh if they need to use a third starter, considering Joe Ryan’s issues with home runs in the second half. Jays starter Kevin Gausman will get Cy Young votes this year, and however they order Chris Bassitt (and his 2.60 September ERA) and José Berríos, the Blue Jays should own an advantage in at least one of Games 2 and 3. Slim edge to the Jays.
Shortening the bullpen should also help the Twins, who start with an advantage. If you look at only the five best relievers on these two teams over their last month, their five best have an ERA under two and far superior peripherals to a Jays pen that has really good pieces but suffers in comparison. Moving Yusei Kikuchi to the pen — where his slimmer arsenal and iffy command matter less — may help Jordans Romano and Hicks and lessen some of this Twins edge, though.
This is a close one, maybe too close to say which team has a clear overall advantage. — Eno Sarris
Why the Twins will win
Minnesota’s pitching staff tied for the AL’s fewest runs allowed. López (3.66 ERA, 234 strikeouts in 194 innings) and Gray (2.79 ERA, 183 strikeouts in 184 innings) are one of the best 1-2 punches in any playoff rotation, Jhoan Duran (2.45 ERA, 84 strikeouts in 62 innings) is an elite closer and the Twins were able to remake their bullpen in September with Brock Stewart and Chris Paddack returning from injuries and converted starters Kenta Maeda and Louie Varland shifting to relief. Pitching has carried the Twins all season, and the lineup stepped up in the second half, scoring the AL’s second-most runs after the All-Star break as rookies Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner thrived. Lewis’ strained hamstring and Correa’s plantar fasciitis are big worries, and it’s reasonable to question any team from one of the worst divisions of all time, but the Twins’ front-line talent is better than their 87-75 record suggests. Twins fans have become conditioned to expect the worst during the historic 18-game, two-decade playoff losing streak, but this team is well-positioned to halt the streak and is absolutely capable of starting a multi-round run with a series win at home. — Aaron Gleeman
Why the Blue Jays will win
The old saying goes, pitching and defence win games and the Blue Jays are certainly hoping that’ll be the case this October. Toronto had the second-best pitching staff in the AL this year, per ERA (3.78), and will enter the postseason with the best pitching staff of the remaining AL clubs. Their deep rotation is led by Gausman, who is likely to get the nod in Game 1, with several options to follow including Bassitt, who led the AL in wins with 16, Berríos and the left-hander Kikuchi. Meanwhile, their bullpen is just as deep with reliable set-up men — Tim Mayza, Erik Swanson, Chad Green and Yimi García — before their one-two punch of Hicks, who can hit triple digits, and Romano, who finished second in the AL in saves with 36.
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After defensive issues sunk them last postseason, the Blue Jays improved in this regard and now field the best defence — per DRS — in the majors. Outfielders Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho lead the way, while third baseman Matt Chapman remains one of the game’s best fielders at the hot corner and shortstop Bo Bichette’s defence has made huge strides.
Scoring on the Blue Jays will be tough and playing tight games has been their M.O. The biggest question will be, what offence shows up? These are not the offensive juggernaut Jays we got used to over the previous two seasons. For large portions of the season, they struggled with hitting with runners in scoring position. For a lineup that includes Springer, Guerrero Jr., Bichette, Chapman and Belt, they haven’t hit for as much power as one might expect either, finishing 16th in home runs with 188. Instead, they’ve employed a more pass-the-baton, take-what-the-opponent-gives-us approach and, well, it got them here. They’re still a dangerous lineup, however, and one that might’ve been waiting to get hot at the very right moment. — Kaitlyn McGrath
Staff predictions for MIN/TOR series
| Team | Percentage of votes |
|---|---|
65% | |
35% |
(Top photo of Carlos Correa: David Berding / MLB Photos via Getty Images; Photo of Kevin Gausman: Julian Avram / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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